Oil Boom: FG Reaps $1bn In Two Weeks  on Middle East Criisis

Adebayo Obajemu 

Nigeria has continued to cash in on the escalating conflict in the Middle East  as global oil prices remain volatile, GreenPlinth's  findings have revealed. 

It was gathered at the weekend that oil companies operating in the nation’s upstream petroleum sector, comprising International Oil Companies (IOCs) and indigenous oil firms, have doubled down on drilling activities in order to maximize output.

The extra barrels, oil experts project, will hand President Bola Tinubu’s administration its largest fiscal windfall  ahead of the 2027 general  elections.

It would be recalled that the  the United States and Israel had on February 28, 2026, launched heavy air strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior government officials.

Iran responded by launching barrage of drone and missile strikes against U.S assets in the region, Israeli cities and towns, as well as on Gulf states with strong ties to the U.S.

The ongoing war, which is already in its third week, is  threatening to upend the world’s already volatile economy by disrupting the production and free flow of oil and in the region, which accounts for more than one-fifth of the world’s energy supply.

Gains From War

Before the war on Iran, Brent crude – used as the worldwide benchmark for oil prices – traded in the range of $65-$70 per barrel, while Nigerian premium grades of Bonny Light, Agbami, Qua Iboe, Brass River and others traded in the range of $68 to $73 per barrel.

However, the price of the black liquid (Brent) jumped to a high of $119 in the second week of the war, before settling at its current price of $103.1, with industry experts warning that it could rise to $130 with the continued blockade of the Hormuz Strait (a 38km passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman) and deadly attacks on cargo ships plying the Persian Gulf by Iran.

Reliable sources in the nation’s petroleum sector informed  GreenPlinth  that higher oil prices have incentivize international and indigenous firms to maximize output.

“With the full encouragement and support from government, upstream and onshore based oil and gas producers are pushing assets harder and accelerating activity.

“Many operators have hastened up scheduled turnaround maintenances of their assets, cutting completion time by half in some instances to be able to benefit maximally from the windfall.

“This means more income for the companies and the government from improved sales, taxes and royalties”, one of the sources informed this medium.

Race For the Windfalls

On Friday, March 13th, 2026, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) announced the completion of a turnaround maintenance on its Bonga Floating Production, Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel.

According to SNEPCo, the project, which was delivered 11 days ahead of schedule and without any safety incident, ensured the early resumption of production activities at the nation’s first deep-water field on March 6, 2026.

“Completing the turnaround safely and ahead of schedule is a testament to the dedication and professionalism of our Nigerian workforce and the helpful support of our partners.

“The achievement not only secures the long‑term integrity of the Bonga FPSO but also positions us strongly for the successful delivery of the Bonga North project, which will leverage the improved reliability of the FPSO”, a visibly elated SNEPCo Managing Director Ronald Adams, said during the announcement.

GreenPlinth's findings revealed that the exercise began on February 1, 2026, with 55 companies, made up of 43 Nigerian and 12 international firms were involved in the execution.

To indicate the urgency of the turnaround exercise,  more than 1,000 personnel worked offshore and were involved in maintenance, engineering, operations, inspection and construction, while thousands more supported activities from onshore locations.

All Hands on Deck

Revealing the full support of government in the project, SNEPCo CEO  acknowledged the support and contributions of the NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services (NUIMS), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and other partners.

Meanwhile,  it was reliably  gathered at the weekend that several operators, with strong nudging from the government, have pushed up the scheduled time of repair works on some of their assets due for maintenance to later dates to be able to benefit from the ongoing  windfall

However, this newspaper was unable to confirm this revelation at the time of going to press.

According to available data, Nigeria produces average of 1.8 million barrels of crude oil (condensates included) daily.

With a budget estimate of $64 per barrels and crude oil currently trading at $100 on average, Nigeria now earns $36 more on each barrel produced locally.

Findings  show that Nigeria has earned extra $64.8 million on the daily 1.8 million barrels of crude it  produced from February 28th to March 15th, 2026. This translates to extra $972,000,000 revenue so far.

Gas Provide Another Benefit

Meanwhile, the prices of natural gas, which Nigeria produces in abundance and export abroad is also on the rise.

Before the start of the war, Europe’s benchmark gas price stood at $2 505. On March 2nd, three days after the war, gas price jumped 50% before cooling 20% to $3.131 on March 13.

The nation, sources claimed, currently earns over 20% more on its gas exports, further attracting more income  into the federation account.

With the end of the Middle East war not in sight and energy, as well as financial experts predicting crude oil price to soon hit the $130 mark, Nigeria is on the road to earning its biggest windfall in more than three decades.

Speaking on the impacts of the crisis in the Middle East, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), projected that Nigeria could earn about N30 trillion in additional oil revenue if global crude prices remain elevated.

The NESG made the projection in a policy brief it released on Friday titled “Boom, Not Gloom”.

According to the private sector policy advocacy group, the conflict has triggered a sharp rise in global oil prices, creating both opportunities and risks for oil-exporting countries, such as Nigeria.

The NESG said that under a severe global escalation scenario in which crude oil prices average about $130 per barrel for six months, Nigeria could record a fiscal windfall of up to N30 trillion above the 2026 budget benchmark.

The group also projected that the additional income from oil exports will boost foreign exchange inflows and lift Nigeria’s external reserves to about $57 billion.

The NESG stated that higher oil revenues would also support the naira by increasing dollar liquidity in the domestic market, potentially moderating exchange rate pressures and easing imported inflation.

It hasd Happened Before

However, the organization warned that the benefits of the oil price surge are not guaranteed, citing structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including lower-than-budgeted crude oil production, infrastructure constraints and persistent crude theft.

It noted that Nigeria’s oil production has recently averaged significantly below the government’s benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day, stressing that the production gap could reduce the size of the potential windfall.

The NESG, however, urged the Federal Government to adopt a disciplined fiscal strategy by saving revenues above the budget benchmark of $64, rather than increasing spending.

“Nigeria now has a rare opportunity to convert a global energy shock into stronger macroeconomic stability, provided policymakers maintain fiscal discipline and sustain ongoing economic reforms.

“Expected windfall earnings should be channelled into Nigeria’s stabilisation and sovereign wealth funds, while part of the additional revenue should be used to reduce the country’s rising public debt burden”, NESG counselled.