Nigerians Express Worry  Over
Monopoly As Dangote  Takes Charge Of N14.4tn Petrol Market

Adebayo Obajemu

The Nigeria's oil and gas industry together with supply chain may have entered into a straitjacket of monopoly going by what is currently happening in the industry. Concerned Nigerians, stakeholders, economists  energy experts, and Nigerian workers, have voiced deep concern over the reported suspension of petrol imports by the Federal Government. Various segments of Nigerian public have called for a reassessment,  calling for a need for price regulation as Dangote Petroleum Refinery has stealthily taken charge of the country's N14.4tn petrol market, marking the dawn of a dangerous monopoly and a significant  shake-up in the nation’s energy sector.

Reports early in the week have it that  the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority had given a  clear confirmation that  it had not issued any import licence for petrol this year,  giving notice that such was no longer necessary since local production now meets national requirements.

Data from the NMDPRA, has given a disturbing statistics that throws light on a drive towards monopoly as Dangote refinery accounted for about 92 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol supply in February, hinting of the stoppage of importation of petrol by the regulatory agency.

Data from February 2026 fact sheet by the NMDPRA revealed that local production from refineries supplied  the market with 36.5 million litres per day of petrol in February 2026, while importation  contributed just slightly  three million litres per day.

This has shown that  the total national daily supply for February  has jumped to 39.5 million litres, with domestic refining accounting for roughly 92 per cent of the volume, a steep movement  from the decades -long reliance on imported fuel. The data indicates a drastic drop in imports compared with the previous month.

Many who spoke to GreenPlinth are worried over implications of monopoly as Dangote refinery is the only plant producing petrol currently in Nigeria. Other modular refineries produce diesel. Taking a low-range price of N1,000/litre for petrol, and the total consumption of 39.5 million litres per day in February shows that the petrol market in Nigeria is worth over N14.4tn annually. This will however vary from time to time as the global crude price fluctuates.

The  stark admission  by the NMDPRA that it suspended petrol importation on account of the fact that  the country now has enough domestic supply has sparked diverse  reactions from stakeholders and experts.

The NMDPRA  voiced concern  against the return of petrol imports, as the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, declared during a live television programme on Wednesday that the government would not tamper with market pricing of petroleum products,  emphasizing that intervention would only be considered as a last resort.

“Rather than now reverting and taking a backward step, we will look at every other measure that can help the cost of living of Nigerians without resorting to non-market pricing,” Edun stated.

Renowned energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare,  noted that the government should  give reins to competitive petrol supply, rather than  import substitution. While noting that the government disclosure was  a significant policy signal, Iledare  stated that  it  had the capacity to drive  market speculation and a scramble for market power.

The behaviour, he said, could be characterized by precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages.

“The announcement by NMDPRA suspending the issuance of new petrol import licences, on the grounds that local production is sufficient to meet domestic demand, is a significant policy signal in Nigeria’s evolving downstream petroleum market.

“However, such announcements can also trigger market speculation. In a transitioning market structure, participants may interpret regulatory signals differently, leading to strategic positioning and, in some cases, scrabbling for market power. This behaviour can manifest through precautionary stockholding, opportunistic pricing, or attempts to secure logistical and supply advantages,” he noted.

He averred that  the  data revealin reduced imports side by side with lower overall PMS supply in February implied that  the market was still searching for equilibrium. “The data showing reduced imports alongside lower overall PMS supply in February suggests that the market is still searching for equilibrium between domestic refining output, inventory management, and distribution capacity.

“For policy effectiveness, regulatory communication must therefore be clear, predictable, and supported by verifiable supply assurance mechanisms. Market confidence improves when participants are certain that domestic production, logistics infrastructure, and pricing frameworks can consistently sustain national demand. Ultimately, the goal should be competitive market stability — not just import substitution,” Iledare stated.

Ambrose Omokordion, the chief research officer at Investa told GreenPlinth that NMDPRA " is the only agency of the federal government that can authoritatively state whether the country has enough petrol or has shortage, and since it has said local capacity had produced what we needed locally, there was no need for importation, the issue of going gaga or losing sleep over Monopoly is not worth it, sooner or later there will be competition.

This view is supported by Dr Olufemi Omoyele, Director of Entrepreneurship at Osun State University, noting that " As far as we are concerned, it's one step after another. What should concern us now is availability and not the idle talk over monopoly.  The market can not be sustained for long on monopoly, sooner or later, there will competition, but the most important thing now is availability that satisfies and meet the maximum need of Nigeria.

A  professor of energy, Dayo Ayoade,  was quoted as saying that the NMDPRA is  statutorily the only agency that can determine  whether or not the country has enough petrol stock. He said it is the duty of the regulator to ensure the country does not insist on costly importation when there is enough in-country refining. At the same time, he said the NMDPRA has to be careful to ensure the country is not stranded if there is any failure on the part of the Dangote refinery.

“The Petroleum Industry Act is very clear on competition. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, as a regulator, has powers to ensure competition in the downstream sector,” he said.

Other commentators like Omoyele reflected on the structural weakness or failure in the country's refining capacity that allowed for dependence on  Dangote’s output.

Ayoade noted that, “The fact that they are reliant on Dangote refinery output is because we don’t have functional Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited refineries, and there are no alternatives at the moment,” he said.

He noted that the major responsibility is with the regulator to allow for integrity and openness and transparency in pricing in order to discourage  profiteering. He, however, pointed out that  the regulator has enormous heft and  the authority to act if the refinery  crosses the line and abuses its dominant market position. “But if they find that Dangote is abusing its monopoly privileges, then of course they have the power to penalise the refinery,” he said.

He stated that, “The ball is really in the court of the regulator. It has nothing to do with the Dangote refinery. It is not their fault that we haven’t built our refineries to compete with them. As the market matures and other refineries come on stream, we will see more competition, and that will affect pricing.

Mohammed Abdul, an energy watcher expressed fear that dependence  on a single refinery for the bulk of  petrol supply has the capacity to expose the country to major supply shocks, adding that the production boost by the refinery was artificial and not natural.

“It is quite great that in two years, Nigeria has achieved over 90 per cent of its petrol consumption produced in the country. But at the same time, we have to be very careful of the energy risks it imposes. A country like Nigeria that is quite fragile, and has a policy that is not properly implemented.”

The Dangote refinery , according to investigations  supplies around 50 million litres of petrol daily, accounting for roughly 90 per cent of Nigeria’s estimated consumption.

But analysts say a total reliance  Dangote refinery to supply an average of 50 million litres daily, in tune with 90 per cent of  daily consumption, is a total energy risk.

Currently, Nigeria's population hovers between 200-220 million  who consume around 70 million litres of petroleum products on a daily basis. Any little glitch from the Dangote refinery might pose an energy crisis and even a security crisis for the country.

Throwing itself into the fray, The Nigeria Labour Congress frowned at the dominance of a single supplier in a sector so critical as oil, noting that it has the capacity to expose consumers to price exploitation and to the whims and caprice of the monopoly, which it believed could worsen economic hardship if left unchecked.

“The truth is that monopoly is not good for any nation, business, or economy,” NLC Assistant Secretary-General Christopher Onyeka said

Onyeka argued that many countries all over the world enforce anti-trust regulations in order to prevent private-sector monopolies, saying that the spectre of danger hovers if pricing power is allowed to be wielded by one company supplying a product central to economic activity.

He said , “In a monopoly situation, the seller fixes the price and determines supply. There is a need to regulate the price of this product at this time.

He urged authorities to engage the refinery operator to agree on a controlled pricing framework while also reducing taxes and levies on petroleum products to lower pump prices.